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Hawaii’s population has grown 7% over the past decade, and the state has maintained its ranking of 40th among the 50 states, according to the 2020 census, released Monday by the US Census Bureau.
The census counted 1,455,271 people in Hawaii, 94,970 more than here at the last major count in 2010.
However, the figure confirms that the state’s 10-year average growth rate was the lowest since 1900.
Eugene Tian, the state’s chief economist, said the average annual population growth between 2010 and 2020 was 0.68%, slightly lower than that of the whole country at 0.71%.
Tian said two factors played a big role in the decline in growth: a falling birth rate and people leaving the islands.
He said people are leaving Hawaii due to the high cost of living and looking for job opportunities. He also said some people choose to return to their hometown after living in Hawaii for a few years.
Tian said declining birth rates are seen in a decreasing number of women of childbearing age (aged 15 to 49), rising childcare and education costs, and more people refusing to marry.
Keli’i Akina, president and CEO of the conservative think tank Grassroot Institute of Hawaii, said the bottom line is that residents find it too expensive to live on the islands.
Taxes are too high, the cost of housing is astronomical and there are too many barriers to business and labor opportunities, he said.
“All the good jobs and greener pastures seem to be on the mainland,” Akina said in an email. “Those of us who are still here are lucky so far; we know that most of the people who left did so more or less against their will. They love their homes and ohana. But they have to survive, and Hawaii’s economic outlook is not promising.
Tian said slow population growth may continue in the future for both Hawaii and the country.
The State Department of Business, Economic Development and Tourism has projected that Hawaii’s population growth between 2020 and 2045 will be even lower than in the past decade, at 0.47 percent per year.
On the positive side, lower population growth could lead to lower local housing demand, Tian said.
Regarding the 2020 census, Tian said the Census Bureau surprised state officials by releasing a higher-than-expected population figure for Hawaii.
In December 2020, the bureau released an estimated Hawaiian population of 1,407,006 for 2020. The new estimate is 48,265 higher.
While several states will see changes affect their representation in Washington, Hawaii did not gain or lose any congressional seats as a result of the census. Hawaii will continue to have two representatives in the United States House.
The Census Bureau has only released statewide data and is expected to release more detailed numbers later this year.
